Day 55: When Will the "String Play Out?"
"My five-year-old granddaughter confided in me yesterday: 'The two things I hate most are Hamas and the air raid sirens.' It really made me sad."
By Rick Borenstein
Editor’s Note: Tel-Aviv-based Rick Borenstein began a journal on Day 1 of the Hamas-Israel War. JEWDICIOUS is pleased to begin sharing some of his personal pieces.
The cruel, heart wrenching Hamas hostage game continues. Israel has no choice but to play along. One more agonizing day of ‘will she come home, or won’t she’ for the waiting families. One more time testing Israel’s resolve.
Yesterday, they offered seven, but “couldn’t find more.” Israel said “No, war starts at midnight.” Hamas found three more at the last minute. One more day of calm. Rumor has it that there is one more round to go. I’m happy the children and moms are out.
All the big wigs are in Qatar negotiating for the criminals and soldiers’ swap. No doubt the price is steep. Not quite Shalit proportions (1,073 for 1), but high. I think Israel may wait to put more pressure on Hamas.
There is no chance that this short-term cease-fire will turn into a longer term one. Stopping the war now means Israel has failed on both of its objectives. Moreover, Hamas is still intact. Hamas murdered 1,200. They still retain at least 143 of our hostages. Their leadership is intact. They don’t care about the civilians or the damage. Who won and who lost? This is not a status quo moment. Phase II, coming up.
As long as Biden is in their corner, Israel won’t stop. The rules might change a bit. Blinken isn’t in Israel again by coincidence. He is here to ensure the White House’s “more measured approach” is listened to. I assume carpet bombing is not an option in the South. That means a longer time frame and potentially more Israeli casualties. For you Econ majors out there like me, the Israeli economy is holding up well. The Central bank economists have repeatedly trimmed their 2023 growth estimate to 2% from 3.1%, and expect an inflation rate of 2.4% in the coming year. Key interest rates will fall to a range of 3.75% to 4.0% by the end of 2024. All in all, not a bad forecast.
Two State Solution? It was dead before October 7th, and this war makes things worse. A whole generation of Palestinians have been traumatized. Same for all of the Israelis. Does that enhance the chances for a fair and equitable solution? Our leadership won’t lead us anywhere except into chaos before getting booted out. A positive outcome is hard to see. Two State Solution? Not in my lifetime (admittedly a low bar).
November 29th, 1947, the United Nations agreed to the partition of Palestine. The Arabs immediately rejected the offer. One day later, they attacked the Jews. It has ever been thus for 76 years.
I looked back to Day 3 of this conflict and two things caught my eye. First, I said “flatten the Strip” was the trendy term. Well, from the photos, check.
I also asked, does anybody know what the end game is?? I still don’t know. We are no closer to an answer today than we were then. Eliminating Hamas will be elusive. Perhaps we can eliminate their leadership and military, but not the idea. The cycle will continue in some form. Most Israelis say let’s finish the job first, then worry about it. I hope some smart people are thinking about this issue.
My five-year-old granddaughter confided in me yesterday: “The two things I hate most are Hamas and the air raid sirens.” It really made me sad.
After 55 days, my wife and I decided it was OK to plan a trip to visit family in California. I leave in a couple of weeks and Doritte will follow.
Rick Borenstein is a “Silicon Valley escapee” who now lives with his family in Israel. He a coach, investor, NGO adviser — and Tel Aviv-booster.
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